July Hard Red Winter Futures Are Showing Resilience Despite a Broader Grain Market Selloff. Here Are the Levels to Watch Before You Buy.

Jim Wyckoff Barchart Thu Apr 3, 9:20AM CDT
Wheat and stormy sky by Marcin Kempa via Unsplash

July hard red winter wheat futures (KEN25) present a buying opportunity on more price strength. 

See on the daily bar chart for July HRW wheat futures that prices have bounced from the recent lows. This has formed a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern. Importantly, HRW wheat prices Thursday morning were showing keen resilience as other grain markets sold off. This is a sign of underlying strength in the HRW wheat futures market.

Fundamentally, the wheat market bulls got a bullish USDA U.S. planting intentions report on Monday, March 31, showing U.S. wheat seedings at the second-lowest level since records began in 1919. Also, weather in much of U.S. hard red winter wheat-growing country has been less-than-ideal for the HRW wheat crop the past few months.

A move in July HRW wheat futures prices above chart resistance at $5.80 would give the bulls more power and it would also become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be $6.30, or above. Technical support, for which to place a protective sell stop just below, is located at $5.60. 

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 

Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. 


On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.